2016一2024年中衛(wèi)市食源性疾病流行特征分析及趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)

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Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Foodborne Diseases in Zhongwei City from 2016 to 2024

SHEN Yanhua，LI Yanru （Zhongwei Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Zhongwei 755ooo， China）

Abstract： Objective： To analyze the epidemic characteristics of foodborne diseases in Zhongwei city from 2016 to 2024， predict the incidence trend，and provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies. Method：Based on the data from the National Foodborne Disease Surveilance and Reporting System，5575 cases of foodborne diseases reported by 64 sentinel hospitals in Zhongwei cityand2796 specimen data from etiological testing nstitutions were collcted.Descriptive statistics and the ARIMA product seasonal model were used to analyze the thre-way distribution characteristics and time series trends of the diseases.Result： The cases showed significant seasonal characteristics （high incidence in summer and autumn， accounting for 11.07% in June）， with 52.61% being male. Children under 10 years old （43.87% ）and scattered children （34.71%） ）were the high-incidence groups， and families （84.61% ） were the main exposure places. The suspicious foods were mainly fruits and their products （27.23%） ）， meat and meat products （17.70%） ，with a pathogen detection rate of 17.81% ，mainly norovirus （55.62%） and Salmonella （26.31%） ）. The ARIMA model predicts that the incidence rate in 2025 will be on par with the historical level （ R2=0.621 ， MAPE=24.263% . Conclusion： The prevention and control of foodborne diseases in Zhongwei city should focus onkey populations，places and pathogens，strengthen health education inrural areas，family food health management and supervision ofcoletive food supply units.At the same time，a prediction and early warming system should be constructed based on the ARIMA model to reduce the risk of diseases.

Keywords： foodborne diseases; epidemiology; prediction

食源性疾病是指因攝入被病原體污染的食物而引發(fā)的感染性或中毒性疾病[1]。（剩余5166字）