碳達峰背景下河南省物流業(yè)碳排放預測及影響因素研究

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中圖分類號：F259.27 文獻標志碼：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.12.002

Abstract：AlongwiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy，itsenvironmentalproblemshavegraduallatractedgreat attention.HenanProvince，asanimportantpartoftheCentralPlainsregion，itscarbonemisionsfromthelogisticsindustryare increasingyearbyyearbringinggreatchalengestoHenan'sgrenandhealthydevelopmentmodel，soitisofgreatsigniicance tocarryoutastudyonthepredictionofcarbonemisionsfromthelogisticsindustryinHenanProvinceandthefactorsffecting themforthehigh-qualitydevelopmentof HenanProvince.Inthisstudythetotalcarbonemissionsofthelogisticsindustryare obtainedthroughthetotalcarbonemisionsformula，predictedwiththehelpofBPNeuralNetwork，andSTIRPATmodelis introducedtodecomposethetotalcarbonemisionsofthelogisticsindustryintothefactorsofpopulationsize，economiclevel， energyintensity，energystructureandindustriallevel，andthelikeforempiricalanalyses.Theresultsofthestudyareas follows.WiththehelpofBPNeuralNetwork，thetotalcarbonemisionoflogisticsindustryinHenanProvinceispredictedto notreachthepeak in2O3Oandshows anupwardtrend;thefivefactorsof ppulationsize，economic level，energyintensity，nergy structurendindustriallevelhvepositivecorelationtothetotalcarbonemissonofhelogisticsindustryinHenanProvince andhaveapositiveroleinpromotingit.Therefore，inordertoachievedual-carbongoalsandpromotethehealthyandsustainable developmentof HenanProvince，itisproposedthatmacro-controlshouldbeimplementedtoformulate thedevelopmentstrategy oflow-carbonlogsticsindustry，regulatethepopulationsizetooptimizethepopulationmanagement，andpromotethestructural adjustment of the logistics industry to optimize the upgrading of the logistics industry.

KeyWords：carbon peaking;carbonemision from logistics industryin Henan Province;BPNeural Network;STRPATmodel

0引言

伴隨著全球氣候變化問題日益突出及全球溫室氣體排放量持續(xù)增加，氣候變化對人類社會及生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了嚴重的影響。（剩余6470字）