ARIMA模型在中國城鎮(zhèn)人口預(yù)測(cè)中的研究

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中圖分類號(hào)：0211.61 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A文章編號(hào)：1009-3583（2025）-0075-04

Research on ARIMA Model in Urban population Forecast in China

SHEN Jin ， XU Ling （Anhui Sanlian University，Hefei 230601，China）

Abstract：AccordingtotheurbanpopulationdataofChinafrom197to2O23bytheNationalBureauofStatistics，atimeseriesmodel based n ARIMA algorithm was createdtopredict heurbanpopulationof China.According tothe modelorderand parameterstimation，the parameterangeisdeteried，andthepredictedesultsarecomparedwiththeactualvalues.ItisfoundtatAA（1，10） modelis themostefectieinpredictingCina’subanpoulatinFinallomparingte（1，1）odelwithteetial curveftigmodel，tisscoveredtateodelashgheraccacypopulatiopreictioeodelsowstattan population in China will proceed to grow in the short run， but the growth trend willgradually slow down.

Keywords： Urban population forecast; Time series analysis; ARIMA model; Curve fitting

城鎮(zhèn)化是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要?jiǎng)恿?，城?zhèn)化水平間接反映了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平。（剩余3802字）