基于CORDEX數(shù)據(jù)的黃河上游未來極端降水變化預(yù)估

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大鍵詞：極端降水；氣候變化；CURDEX；黃河上游

中圖分類號：TV62;TV882.1 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.07.025引用格式：劉梓萱，毛睿，施翠翠，等.基于CORDEX數(shù)據(jù)的黃河上游未來極端降水變化預(yù)估[J].人民黃河，2025，47（7）：156-162.

Projection of Future Extreme Precipitation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CORDEX Data

LIU Zixuan’，MAO Rui1，SHI Cuicui1'2， ZHAO Huaiqun1，WANG Xueyan' （1.School of National Security and Emergency Management，Beijing Normal University， Zhuhai ，China; 2.School of Systems Science，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 1Oo875，China）

Abstract：ReseoirssteseasritialcolocalersdpivotalodsiwatersedwatersourcemaagntHoweehr stabilityisincreasiglyhallngdyeoinfrequcyofetreepreipiationeventsinducedylobalwaing.Thseeventsatrig gercascadingdisstersposingsigifcanteats toualifedsocconoicevelopentinadgio.issudyusedonte upperreachesoftheYelowRiverandutilizedhigh-resolutiondatafromtheCoordinatedRegional ClimateDownscalingExperient（CORDEX），specificallyderiedfrotheEastAsiadmainFurbiasoectionmetodsoflearsaling，quantilemaing，Quatl-Qdjust ment，ndvariancesaling-wereapldtevauateeirectivnessioretigprecipiatiodataasdoomparativeaalyisthe Quantile-QadustentethddmostratedhebsoverallorectioperfomanendwasthreoreseletedtocalibateCORXfuture periodsiulatios.UndertheRCP2.6senario，thespatialdistributionofulti-yeareanetrmeprecipitationindiceuring26-99 remainsonsistentwithtestorcalperiod，showingonlyslightincreassIncontrst，udertheigemisionCP8.5senaroeeral indices rise significantly，with enhanced regions mainly located in central Qinghai，and south Inner Mongolia.

Key words：extreme precipitation； climate change；CORDEX；upper reaches of the Yellow River

極端降水是影響黃河上游庫壩群安全的重要致災(zāi)因子。（剩余8617字）