基于3種算法的海南州泥石流易發(fā)性預(yù)測(cè)及致災(zāi)因子研究

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關(guān)鍵詞：泥石流；致災(zāi)因子；易發(fā)性預(yù)測(cè);RF算法;GBDT算法;XGBoost算法；海南藏族自治州中圖分類號(hào)：P642.22 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.07.003引用格式：胡少偉，郭要輝，葉宇霄，等.基于3種算法的海南州泥石流易發(fā)性預(yù)測(cè)及致災(zāi)因子研究[J].人民黃河，2025，47（7）：13-19.

Study on Debris Flow Susceptibility Prediction and Disaster-Causing Factors in Hainan Based on Three Algorithms

HU Shaowei 1，2 ，GUO Yaohui2，YE Yuxiao1， LIAO Yi 1， ZHANG Zhiwei2，，LI Liang2 （1.College of Water Conservancy and Transportation， Zhengzhou University，Zhengzhou 45Oo01，China; 2.School of Civil Engineering， Chongqing University，Chongqing 4Oo045，China）

Abstract：Inodertosrentedisasterausingfactors tatiducedebrisfows，evaluatetepefoanceof tetreemachilaingal gorithmsofRF，GBDndXGBot，preditigtesuseptiblityfebrisos，ndprovdeferenesfgeolocalsastert anddisasterpreventionandmitigationintheareaspronetodebrisflows，akingHainanTibetanAutonomousPrefecture，QinghaiProvinceas thestudyaraandasedonstorcaldebrisflowisasterdataasedoteitiallseleced7ifuencngfactorsandteeasoe tioncoeficientfebrsfodssters，edsstercausigfctorstatiducedebrsereseedTemaingdisastecausigc torswereclasifidnd8ombatiosofdisaster-ausingfctos ereset.Tethe macheangalgiofRF，GBD，andXGoost wereusedtopredictthesusceptibilityofebrisflow.Thpredictionfectwasevaluatedyindicatorssuchasaccuracyateprecisiorate， recallrate，soendOAUC.esulssotata）distaefroeiverhael，levatio，oilrodibilityopgacs tureindexaliallaoias ture，curvature，lointofvatiooevationdsptareisastecaingfactosatiduedebrisflowiestudy area.Amogtlevatiostaefroiveaeloliltpogapcoedalfallal vegetationndexaretheaindisaster-causingfactos.b）WhentetreealgoitsofRF，GBDandXGBoostareusedtopredictthlikeliodfebrisflow，thepredictionfctbasedontedisaster-causingfactrcombiationC7（tiscombiationdosnotcosiderslopedirection）isthebst，andthepredictionefectsbasedontedisaster-causigfactorcombnatiosC5（thiscombnationdoesnotcosiderurvature，coeficientofvarationofelevationandlopedirection）andC8（thisombiationcosidersalldisaster-ausingfactors）arealso goodc）Whenpredictingthesuseptibilityofebrisflowsbasedonthdsaster-causingfactorcombinationC7，theankingofteadvantages and disadvantages of the three algorithms is XGBoost， GBDT and RF.

Keywords：debrisflow;disaster-causingfactors；susceptibilityprediction;RFalgori;GBDalgorit;XGBostalgoritHaan betan Autonomous Prefecture

0 引言

泥石流是由強(qiáng)降水或洪水等誘發(fā)的一種地質(zhì)災(zāi)害，其挾帶大量泥沙、石塊和巨礫等固體顆粒沿山谷或坡地快速流動(dòng)，具有突發(fā)性強(qiáng)、破壞力大、災(zāi)害嚴(yán)重、波及范圍廣等特點(diǎn)[1-4]。（剩余8071字）