基于ARIMA模型的揚州港口貨物吞吐量預(yù)測

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中圖分類號：F552 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.08.022

Abstract： Withthecontinuous advancement of global economic integration，ports，servingas thecrucial pilarof domesticand internationallogistics，aregraduallyevolvingtowardsamoreinteligentandrefiedoperationalmodeinthefaceofintensearket competition.Asakeyindicatorforevaluatingtheproductionandoperationalactivitiesofenterprises，thepredictinoftohut' futuredataholdssgnificantimportancefortheformulationofinvestmentplaninganddevelopmentstrategiesofenterprises.Hence， theprecisepredictionofortcargothroughputofersavitalscientificbasisforportlgisticsdevelopmentplanning.TakingYaghou Portasanexaplethisatallyodctssriptivestatialaalstoelasatioarityttnddeltote dataof Yangzhou Portfrom20o9 to023，andultimatelydetermines theARIMAmodel.Subsequently，the modelisemployed to forecasttheportcargothroughputfrom2O24to2025.Thevisualizationandstatisticalresultsdemonstratethatthemodelfitswel， providing a reference for relevant personnel and managers.

Key words： cargo throughput prediction; ARIMA; time series model; Yangzhou Port

0引言

隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的不斷發(fā)展，港口作為連接國內(nèi)外市場的重要節(jié)點，其貨物吞吐量直接關(guān)系到國家和地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。（剩余3868字）