基于組合預(yù)測的港口集裝箱吞吐量分析

——以東亞主要港口為例

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中圖分類號(hào)：F552 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.08.004

Abstract：Intheprocesofportdevelopmentandconstruction，throughutisanimportanteference.Scientificandaccurateprdition of portthroughputchanges isofgreatsignificanceforaceleratiglgisticsandsuplychainmanagementandregionalcoopration.In this paperepresetativedomsticortofinJpanandSouthKoreatheportpowersinEastAsiaaretaknasseachet First，thre singlefecastigmoels，G（，dadaticpotialsogeod，aedteastete containerthroughuttrendofthethreeports，andthenforacombinedforecastingmodeltroughweightalocation.Tesultsshow thatcomparedwithtesingleforecastingmodel，thecombiedforecastingmodelreducesteforecastigerorandhashighecuacyTe forecasting resultsasoprovideacertainreferenceforthefuture developmenttrendandconstruction directionofthe thre ports. Key Words： container throughput; AR IMA; GM（1，1）; quadratic exponentialsmoothing method; combined forecasting

0引言

港口是全球貿(mào)易中不可或缺的一環(huán)，大多數(shù)國際貿(mào)易依賴海運(yùn)完成，港口作為貨物的集散地，對(duì)腹地城市有著深遠(yuǎn)的影響，對(duì)全球供應(yīng)鏈也至關(guān)重要，而港口吞吐量是反映港口生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)成果的重要數(shù)量指標(biāo)，對(duì)港口貨物吞吐量的合理預(yù)測是進(jìn)行港口物流規(guī)劃與建設(shè)的關(guān)鍵部分，也是展開港口區(qū)域合作的重要參考[1-2]。（剩余11341字）