基于關(guān)鍵路徑法的導(dǎo)管架施工進度風(fēng)險評估

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Abstract：Asacriticalengineringfacilityinofshoreoilgasfielddevelopment，jacketinvolesmulti-disiplinarycollbration， intensivecrosopationdolexprocestrol.Tergsisecttuliiesioalskctorsucht management，andtecologyoeettesysematicassessmentrequrementsforteissintheonsructioprogessoftejacketa dynamicquantitativeanalysisframeworkforriskswasconstructedbasedonthecriticalpathmethod（CPM）.Amultidimensionalrisk factorlistwasstablsdbyskidentificatio.Accodingtoenalyisoftotalfloatndduratiosenstivityteimpactofiskets onkeynodesandoverallprogresswasquantified.Therisklevelwasassessedbycombiningtheprobabilityinfluencematrix.The feasibilityofthemethodwasverifiedwithajacketprojectintheSouthChinaSeaasaexample.Itisshownthatthismethodcan accuratelylcateighsorkprocesptizethepriorityofskresponsestrategiesandprovideasientificdecisioaking basis for risk control in marine engineering progress.

Keywords：jacket; progress risk; schedule management; critical path method （CPM）

海上油氣田開發(fā)是一項復(fù)雜的綜合性工程，包括前期研究、方案設(shè)計、物資采辦、陸上建造及海上安裝調(diào)試等多個階段，具有技術(shù)含量高、系統(tǒng)性強、周期長、投資規(guī)模大及環(huán)境約束強等特點。（剩余4160字）