基于SD建模的新能源汽車市場(chǎng)發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)研究

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中圖分類號(hào)：U469.7 收稿日期：2025-03-17 DOI：10.19999/j.cnki.1004-0226.2025.06.009

Abstract：Inthecontextofglobalclimatechangeandeergycrisisinordertopromotetetransformationoftheutomobledustryandtheoptimizatiooftheenergstructure，itisofgreatsignificancetoaalyetenewenergyvehiclemarketandpredictetrend oftheindustry.Thispaperusesthesystemdynamics（SD）model，comprehensivelyconsideringtechnology，cost，consumptionand otherfactors，ssmesolicyconomicstabilitysteadydevelopmentofthnologyndifrastructure，integratesultiouedata withthehelpofVensimsoftwaremodelingandanalysis.Researchshowsthatthesalesvolumeandownershipof2024—2035newenergyvehicleswillgrowrapidly，withtchnologicalbreakthroughsandperfectinfrastructure，andthemarketwillshiftfrompolicydriven tomarketdriven.Basedonthis，suggestionsareputforwardonoptimizingsubsidies，acceleratingtheconstructionofchargingnet work，suprtingtechoogicaliovationndimprovingtheostmarketservicesstem，soatoelphialeadinteglobaleenergyvehicle market，achieve thegoalofcarbonneutrality，andpromote theglobalgreenandlow-carbondevelopment.

Key words：New energy vehicles;Market forecast;System dynamics;Development trend

1前言

全球氣候變化與能源危機(jī)加速綠色低碳轉(zhuǎn)型，新能源汽車成為產(chǎn)業(yè)核心。（剩余3492字）