人民幣匯率變動(dòng)怎樣影響通脹率及貿(mào)易余額

——一個(gè)分位數(shù)回歸的視角

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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：F822.2；F822.5 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1004-0714（2025）07-0065-05

Abstract：Inthe context ofclassicinternational economics underan open economy，exchange rate fluctuations affect a country's inflation rate through channels such as import prices and import substitutes.When a country's exchange rate depreciates，the demand for foreign products shifts towards domestically produced goods，therebyimproving the trade balance raditional inearregression replacestheheterogeneityandextremeconditionsacrossdifferent sectionsofthesampledatadistributionwithaverageconditions.Byusing quantile regression，we can gain aiclearer insight into how fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate affect China'sinflation rate and trade balance.Empirical tests show that the depreciation of the RMB significantlyincreasesdomestic thi ac weakens radually astheinflationraterises，andis notsignificantinthehigherquantilesofinflation. Additionally，the depreciationoftheRMBonly signifi cantly promotes netexportsat thetwotailsofthetrade balance distribution，whilehaving no significant effect in the middle range.

Keywords：Quantile Regression;RMB Exchange RateFluctuations;Inflation Rate;Trade Balance

一、引言

我國(guó)歷來(lái)是一個(gè)進(jìn)口大國(guó)，根據(jù)海關(guān)總署最新發(fā)布的進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)①，2024年1月至8月，我國(guó)貨物貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口總值達(dá)到了28.58萬(wàn)億人民幣，同比增長(zhǎng) 6% 。（剩余7270字）