水稻種植業(yè)的投資回報與財務風險評估

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中圖分類號：F275 文獻標志碼：A 文章編號：1673-6737（2025）03-0082-06

Abstract：Intheevaluationof investmentreturnsandfinancialrisksinricecultivation，theaccuracyoftheevaluation resultsislowduetotheinfluenceofdimensionaldiferencesinevaluationindicators.Therefore，itisproposedtoevaluate theinvestmentreturnandfinancialriskofriceplantingindustry.Byselectingkeymeteorologicalindicatorsthatafectrice yield，estimatingtheexpectedyieldandmarketpriceofriceusinginitialinvestmentcosts，andpredictingtheexpected returnsofrice.Furtherdeterminethenetcashflowofricecultivationandestimatetheretumoninvestmentofrice cultivationbasedoninternalrateofreturn.Basedonthis，indicatorsthatcancharacterizethefinancialriskofrice plantingindustryareselectedfromfouraspects：profitability，debtpayingability，operationaleficiency，andcashflow changes.Therangestandardizationmethodisusedtostandardizeeachindicatortoeliminatedimensionaldiferences.The entropyweightmethodisintroducedtoobtaintheweightsofeachevaluationindicator，therebyobtainingthecomprehensive financialriskscore.Basedontherisklevelclasificationcriteriathefinancialriskstatusofthericeplantingindustryis determined.Theexperimentalresultsshow thatundertheapplicationof theproposed method，thegoodnessoffit between theinvestmentretumrateandfinancialriskscoreofriceplantingindustryobtainedandtheactualvalueishigherthan 0.5，and the evaluation accuracy isrelatively high.

KeyWords：Ricecultivationindustry;Investment retun；Financial risk;Internalrateof return；Risk level

當前，隨著氣候變化、資源約束加劇和市場波動等外部因素帶來的挑戰(zhàn)，水稻種植的投資回報和財務風險日益成為業(yè)界和學術界關注的焦點。（剩余6121字）