基于CEEMDAN-LSTM模型的大伙房水庫入庫流量中長期預報

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Medium- and Long-term Forecast of Inflow of Dahuofang Reservoir Based on CEEMDANLSTMModel

WANGChunyu'，ZHANGJing1*，YANGXu2，YANBin （1.CollgeofWaterResoures，ShenyangAgriculturalUniversityhenyangO866，China; 2.LiaoningDahuofangReir AdministrationLimitedLiabilityCompany，F(xiàn)ushun113oo7，China）

Abstract：Astocsisbcttinfallmpatufasanctivityteedultilectosf complexityitslwofhngesossigificantadomssnducertaintyreatlyiceasingtdifultyfedi-ndlote forecastandrestrictingitsaplicationectinproductionpractice.Therefore，howtobreakthroughthetechnicalbotleneckof medium-andlong-termflowforecasthasbecomeakeyproblemtobesolvedinthecurrnthydrologicalscienceresearchInviewof this，withDahuofang Reservoirastheresearchobject，the monthlyflow forecastof thereservoirwascariedoutbyusing gray correlationanalysisandprincipalcomponentanalysiscombinedwiththeCEEMDAN-LSTMmodel.Monthlyflow，rainfalland meteorologicaldatafrom1961to2008wereselectedtocalibratethemodelparameters.The monthlyflowdatafrom2009to2O20was usedtovalidatetemodel.Theidicatorsofeterinationcoefient，ootmansquareeandaverageelativeerorreapplied to evaluate theforecastresults.Aording totheresults，whenfourprincipalcomponentsareselectedbyusing principalcomponent analysis toreducethedimensionalityof theforecastfactorsetsaftertheadditionoftheprevious average temperatureandmaximum temperaturedata，theCEEMDAN-LSTMmodelcanefectivelyimprovetheforecastaccuracyandbecometheoptimalmodelforthe monthlyflowforecastofDahuofangReservoir.Technicalsupportisprovidedfortheformulationofthefuturemedium-andlong-te dispatching plan of Dahuofang Reservoir.

Keywords：iflow; medium-andlong-termforecast;principalcomponentanalysis;CEEMDAN-LSTMmodel; DahuofangReservoir

中長期流量預報在水資源規(guī)劃與管理中具有重要的理論價值與實踐意義，其預測結果可為流域水文情勢分析、水庫調度方案優(yōu)化以及水資源合理配置提供科學依據(jù)。（剩余9574字）