氣候變化背景下中國(guó)九大流域干旱的時(shí)空特征分析

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1圖分類號(hào)：TV1 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1001-9235（2025）06-0020-11

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in China's Nine Major River Basins under Climate Change

GUOBinbin 1，2，3 ， LI Luyao'， LI Shuyingl

（1.CollegeofGeographyandTourism，HengyangNoralUniversityHengyang4o，China;2.HunanIstituteofEcoic Geography，HunanUniversityofFinanceandEconomics，Changsha41O2o5，China;3.Hunan ProvincialKeyResearchBaseof PhilosophyandSocialienceforterotectionndActiveUilzatioofaditioalVilageHeritageHngyang4a）

Abstract：BasedonthemonthlyprecipitationandtemperaturedatainterpolatedbyusingANUSPLINfrommeteorologicalstations in Chinafrom1961toO2O，thisstudyemployedmethodssuchasthestandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex （SPE），annKendall（M-K）test，orletwaveletanalysis，ndHurstexponnttoainthspatialndmporalharacteristics，frequcic changesoverthepast6Oyears，andfuturetrendsofdroughtsinthenine majorriverbasinsofChina.Thespatialandtemporal characteristicsofdroughtsintheseriverbasinswassystematicallconducted.Theresultsshowthat，exceptfortheHaieRiverand YellwRiverbsiseepreipiationtdtoecrease，tothrsisebitanireaingtredihteoutheastivesins showingthelargestincrease.TheSPEIindexofostbasinsshowsadowwardtrendindicatinganintensificationofdoughthe inlandriverandsouthwestriverbasinshavenotexperiencedanyabruptchangesoverthepast6Oyears，whereasotherbasinssuchas theHaiheRiver，HuaiheRiver，PearlRiver，YangtzeRiver，ndYellwRiverbasinshaveundergoneabruptchangesbetwee198Oand 2000.Afterthechange，theUFshowsadecliningtrend，withanintensifyingdrought.Seasonaltrendsofdroughtarerankedas autumn > summer > spring，with some basins showing atrend towards wetnessin winter.Since 1991，drought events have increased， withsignificantrisesinmoderateandlightdroughtsinthe2stcenturyparticularlyintheinlandriverandHaiheRiverbasins.All basinsgenerallexhibitadominantoscilationcycleonthemediumandlong-termsales，withmultipleoscilltioncclesinachThe Hurst exponent （H） is greater than 0.5 for all basins，indicating that，with the exceptionof the southeast river basins，the historical drought trends will continue in the future.

Keywords：drought; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index;M-K test; wavelet analysis; Hurst exponent

干旱，作為全世界普遍且復(fù)雜的自然災(zāi)害之一，具有危害程度大、影響范圍廣以及涉及時(shí)間久的特征[1]。（剩余12443字）