基于遙感數(shù)據(jù)與作物模型結(jié)合的重慶市水稻估產(chǎn)方法

打開文本圖片集

中圖分類號(hào)： S511;S127 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)： 1000-4440（2025）05-0893-12

Abstract：Riceisaprimaryfoodcrop globall，andaccurate predictionof itsyield isof greatsignificanceforfoodsecurityandagricultural resource management.ThisstudyusedtheORYZA（V3）crop modeland MODIS remote sensingdatato establisha rice yield estimation model for Chongqing.The main conclusions were as follows：thecrop parameters inthe model werecalibratedusingricestagedsowing experimentdata.Thecalibrationresultsshowed that thesimulationerorofthemodel for the growth period was less than 5% ，and the determination coefficients（ R2 ）between the simulated and measured values of total aboveground biomass（ WAGT ）andpaniclebiomass （WSO）exceeded O.97o.The normalized root mean square error（nRMSE）waslessthan 22.0% ，whichimproved the applicability of the model in Chongqing.Through regressionanalysis of LAI and rice yield under multiple parametercombinations of the model，aregression model of LAI andriceyieldundertheoptimalcombinationdate（182nd dayof theyear，July1）was established.Basedon this，

the estimation of rice yield in Chongqing in 2O23 was completed with an average accuracy of 87% ，and the overall effect wasgood，especiallinthemainriceproducingareassuchasthewestern，central，andsoutheasternregions，wherethe accuracywas higher.Theresearch results confirm thatcombining crop models withremotesensing datacan efectively improve theaccuracyof regionalcrop yieldestimationand show great application prospects inthefieldofcropyield prediction.

Key words： rice；crop models；remote sensing yield estimation；data combination

水稻作為中國最重要的糧食作物之一，其播種面積和總產(chǎn)量分別占中國糧食作物總播種面積、總產(chǎn)量的 25% 和 31%[1] ，因此水稻在保障中國糧食安全中占有極其重要的地位。（剩余13462字）