外科老年病人普適性譫妄風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型的構(gòu)建及驗證

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Construction and validation of a universal delirium risk prediction model for elderly surgical patients

ZHANG Dandan1，GUO Yuanjun1，TANG Shunluan1，ZHOU Yuhua1，ZHANG Ping2* 1.Shantou Central Hospital，Guangdong 5150oo China;2.School of Nursing，Southern Medical University *Corresponding Author ZHANG Ping，E-mail：44729293@qq.com

AbstractObjective：Toonstructauniversalpredictionofpostoperativedeliuminelderlysurgicalpatients （UPRE-PODES）andverify its predictive effect.Methods：A total of 1 25O patients aged ?60 years who visited the Department of Orthopedics，Gastrointestinal Surgery，CardiothoracicSurgery，andOncologySurgeryofShantou CentralHospitalfromMay1toOctober31，2O22were retrospectively selected as the research subjects. They were divided into a training set Λn=833 ）and avalidation set （n=417 ）.A risk predictionmodelwasestablishedbyLogisticregresson，anditspredictivevaluewasverified.Theregressioncoeficientsofeach independentinfluencingfactorwereconvertedintoasimplescoringtable.Results：Theoptialiticalvalueofthesimplesoringtable generated by the constructed UPRE-PODES was 5 points.When the model score was ?5 points，the patient was considered to be at riskof postoperativedelirium（POD）.Theareaunderthereceiveroperatingcharacteristiccurve（AUROC）of thetrainingsetand validation set were 0.925 and O.918，respectively. The χ2 values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were 10.797 and 3.361， respectively，both P>0.05 .The sensitivity was 84.4% and 83.5% ，respectively.The specificity was 87.3% and 84.3% ，respectively. The prediction accuracy was 86.8% and 84.2% ，respectively. Conclusions： The constructed UPRE-PODES has a good prediction effect and can be used in diferent surgical patients，which is conducive to the homogeneous management of POD. Keywordsuniversality;delirium; prediction model; elderlypatients;surgery;nursing; influencing factors

摘要 目的：構(gòu)建一個可在不同外科老年病人中應(yīng)用的普適性譫妄風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型并驗證其預(yù)測效果。（剩余17205字）