基于監(jiān)測(cè)信息多尺度變量提取的滑坡災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估分析

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Landslide Disaster Situation Assessment based on Multi-scale Variable Extraction from Monitoring Information

，王 猛，（，）

關(guān)鍵詞：滑坡；變分模態(tài)分解；變形預(yù)測(cè)；相對(duì)誤差；災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)

中圖分類號(hào)：TU196 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1005-8249（2025）01-0150-06

DOI：10.19860/j.cnki.issn1005- 8249.2025.01.028

WANG Rongrong，WANG Meng， WEI Zhongkai(Henan Fourth Geological Exploration Institute Co.，Ltd.， Zhengzhou 45OOO1， China）

Abstract：Toaccuratelyassessthesituationoflandslidedisasters，basedonlandslidedeformationdata，deformation characteristicanalysis iscarredoutfirst，andthen multi-scale variableextractionof deformationdataiscarredoutusing variationalmodedecompositiontoobtainseveralmodalcomponents；Atthesametime，alandslidedeformationpredictiomodel is constructed through extreme learning machinesandimproved sparrowsearch algorithms，and thepredictionresultsare used to achievelandslidedisastersituationasessmentandanalysis.Theanalysisresultsshowthatduringthemonitoring period，the cumulative deformation of each monitoring point ranges from 84.16 to $212.48~\mathrm{\mm}$ ，indicating that the overall cumulative deformation ofthelandslideisrelatively large，andthedeformationratealso hasalarge fluctuationrange.Therefore，the deformationcharacteristicsofthelandslidearesignificant；Atthesametime，variationalmodedecompositioncanffectiely extractmulti-scalevariablesfromlandslidedeformationdata，andthepredictionresultsshowthatbothmulti-scalevariable extractionandparameteroptimizationcanefectivelyimprovethepredictionaccuracy.Therelativeerorof theobtained prediction results mainly ranges from 1.98% to 2.14% ，which has a better prediction effect. According to the principle of disadvantage，thedisaster situationoflandslideswillfurther worsen，anddisasterpreventionandremediationshouldbecarred out as soon as possible.

Key words：landslide；variational mode decomposition；deformation prediction；relative error；disaster situation

0 引言

災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估是近年才興起的熱點(diǎn)課題，其主要用于評(píng)估災(zāi)害后續(xù)可能的狀態(tài)，具有重要的工程意義，潛在研究?jī)r(jià)值較大；一般來(lái)說(shuō)，滑坡變形是其穩(wěn)定性的直觀體現(xiàn)，基于滑坡變形數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上的災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估是可行的[1-2]

在以往滑坡變形預(yù)測(cè)方法中，江松[認(rèn)為變形預(yù)測(cè)是實(shí)現(xiàn)滑坡災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估的有效方法，針對(duì)具體滑坡進(jìn)一步完善滑坡災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估方法的構(gòu)建是必要的；李仁江等4構(gòu)建了考慮庫(kù)水位變動(dòng)引發(fā)滑坡變形滯后的預(yù)測(cè)模型；雷海智等5探究了長(zhǎng)短期記憶人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在滑坡變形預(yù)測(cè)中的適用性，取得了良好的預(yù)測(cè)效果；袁維等利用灰色理論、隨機(jī)森林算法等構(gòu)建了滑坡變形預(yù)測(cè)模型，并通過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果實(shí)現(xiàn)了滑坡預(yù)警。（剩余11120字）