預(yù)測(cè)腎臟血管平滑肌脂肪瘤自發(fā)性破裂出血風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列線圖模型的建立與評(píng)價(jià)

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（新疆醫(yī)科大學(xué)第一附屬醫(yī)院泌尿外科，新疆烏魯木齊 830054）

A nomogram model for predicting spontaneous rupture and bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma

HOU Yakun，ZHOU Xingyu，GAO Yu，SONG Hongwen，LIU Qiang，WANG Yujie，WANG Wenguang

（Department of Urology，

The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University，Urumqi 830054，China）

ABSTRACT：Objective To establish a risk model for predicting spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma （RAML） in order to better assess and deal with the risk.Methods The information of 436 RAML patients diagnosed during Jan.2018 and Dec.2022 was retrospectively analyzed.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria，216 patients were included and divided into the rupture bleeding group （n=35） and non-rupture bleeding group （n=181）.The factors influencing spontaneous rupture bleeding were identified using univariate and multivariate analysis，and a nomogram was constructed accordingly with R language.The nomogram was evaluated using Calibration curve and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve （AUC）.Results It was found that clinical manifestations，tumor diameter，tumor convexity，tumor blood supply，and tuberous sclerosis complex （TSC） were significantly correlated with rupture bleeding.The Calibration curve fitted well with the nomogram.The AUC was 0.956 （95%CI：0.856-0.943），indicating that the nomogram had good statistical performance.Conclusion The model can effectively predict the risk of spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma.

KEY WORDS：renal angiomyolipoma；spontaneous rupture bleeding；nomogram；risk model；renal impairment

摘要：目的 建立并評(píng)價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)腎臟血管平滑肌脂肪瘤（RAML）自發(fā)性破裂出血的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型，幫助臨床更好地評(píng)估患者疫情與應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。（剩余7478字）