基于WeibulI分布的兩階段加速壽命試驗?zāi)Ｐ?/h1>

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關(guān)鍵詞：加速壽命試驗；兩階段模型；Weibull分布；失效率；極大似然估計 圖分類號：TB114.3；V216.5 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.06.22

Abstract：Aerospace products will go through multiple task stages in their life cycle.The existing accelerated life test（ALT） models are mainlyaimed ata single task stage，so it is dificult to establish a relationship between the failure distribution of products under diferent stages.In this paper，two-stage ALT model with Weibulldistribution is proposed.Assuming that the product life follows theWeibull distribution with different shape parametersand scale parameters in the two stages of ALT.On the basis of the tamper failure ratemodel，a flexible failure rate idea is introducedand two-stageALTmodel is constructed to connect thefailure distribution of products under diferent stresses.The model parameter estimationanalysis is carried outbased on the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）theory under time censoring.The MLE，asymptotic confidence intervaland Bootstrapconfidence intervalof themodel parametersare obtained.The Monte Carlo simulation and the two-stage ALTdata ofacertain typeof electrical connector are used to verify the model.The results show that the proposed model can effectively describe the life distribution of products in the two-stage ALT，reflecting the influence of thefirst stage test on the second stage test，whose life prediction accuracy is higher than that of the single-stage ALT model. The proposed model provides a new idea for the ALTresearch of products containing multiple task stages.

Keywords：accelerated life test（ALT）；two-stage model；Weibull distribution；failure rate；maximum likelihood estimation （MLE）

0 引言

當(dāng)今航空、航天產(chǎn)品呈現(xiàn)出高可靠、長壽命發(fā)展趨勢，正常條件下很難在短時間內(nèi)獲得足夠的失效信息以評估其壽命，加速壽命試驗（acceleratedlifetest，ALT）成為該類產(chǎn)品壽命評估的一種常用方法，在可靠性領(lǐng)域備受關(guān)注[1-3]。（剩余13471字）