基于SMOTE算法的航班正常率預(yù)測

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中圖分類號：[U8];U111 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A本文引用格式：.基于SMOTE算法的航班正常率預(yù)測[J].華東交通大學(xué)學(xué)報，2025，42（3）：57-66.

Flight Punctuality Rate Prediction Based on SMOTE Algorithm

Zhang Jiayil2，Hu Minghua’，Huang Fangen2

（1.CollegeofCivilAviation，Nanjing UniversityofAeronauticsandAstronautics，Nanjing 2106，China; 2.Air TrafficManagementBureau ofCAAC，Beijing10o022，China）

Abstract： To achieve accurate prediction of the flight punctualityrate，a flight regularity prediction index system was constructed based on data statistics of flight delay reasons，includeing departure airport，destination airport， flow control information，and route characteristics.It proposes a SMOTE algorithm-based XGBoost classification predictionmodel （SM-XGBoost model） and a SMOTE algorithm-based LightGBMclassification prediction model（SM-LightGBMmodel）.Basedon the actual data of major airports inEast China，the validityand progressiveness of the proposed model are verified.The results showed that the SM-XGBoost model and SM-LightGBM model were significantly better than the decision tree and random forest models in terms of prediction accuracy and error.In terms of stabilityof training set and test set， SM-LightGBM model is superior to the SM-XGBoost model， with a maximum prediction accuracy of 88.2% for test set. This method provides a new analytical approach for predicting events in similar complex systems.

Keywords：SMOTE algorithm;flight punctuality rate;XGBoost model

Citation format： ZHANG JY，HU MH，HUANG F G.Flight punctuality rate prediction based on SMOTE algorithm[J]. Journal of East China Jiaotong University，2025，42（3）： 57-66.

隨著民航運輸業(yè)的快速發(fā)展，航班延誤、正常率較低等相關(guān)問題也備受矚目，對正常率問題的研究既是滿足航空運輸業(yè)快速發(fā)展、緩解空域擁擠、提高運行效率的突破口，也是提升國家空域系統(tǒng)資源使用效率和空中交通管制服務(wù)品質(zhì)的必然選擇。（剩余13402字）