1990一2021年中國高血壓心臟病疾病負(fù)擔(dān)及年齡-時(shí)期-隊(duì)列研究

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Study on the Disease Burden and Age-Period-Cohort of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021

JIAShuwei，HONG Yang，ZHANG Bin，YUAN Guili，SHI Jinzheng，ZHANG Zhanshuai

（The Second Wardof theDepartmentof Cardiovascular Medicine，The First Afliated Hospitalof Hebei North University，

Zhangjiakou 075000，Hebei，China）

【Abstract】ObjectiveToanalyzetheseculartrendof disease burdenof hypertensive heartdisease（HHD）in China from1990to 2021，andprovideevidenceforscientificpreventionandcontrolofHH.MethodsBasedontheGlobalBurdenofDiseasedatabas， theage-period-cohortodelasuedtoaalytheidependentectsofgeeriodndohortodatsanddisablitydjustedlifeyar （DALY）ofHHD，andtheNordpredmodelwasusedtopredictthetrendfrom2022 to2030.ResultsFrom1990to2021，thenumberof deathsandDALYduetoHincreased，lthoughage-standardizedatesshowedadownwardtrend.Theage-period-cohortodelaalis indicatedthatolderageasaociatedwithhighermortalityandDALYrates，hilebothperiodandcohortfectsdemonstrateddecliing trends.ProjectiossugesthatbyO，theoverallumberofdathsndDLYmayontiuetose，espiteexpecteddling standardizedrates.ConcusionWhilesubstantialprogreshasbenmadeinthepreventionandcontrolofHHDin China，populatioaging andgrowthoiutseanthgeadtetiosetialrtilalyneddbiely reduce the burden of HHD.

【Keywords】 Hypertensive heart disease；Age-period-cohort model；Nordpred prediction

高血壓心臟病是由于高血壓長期作用于心臟而導(dǎo)致的心臟結(jié)構(gòu)和功能的病理改變[1]。（剩余8950字）