粵港澳大灣區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和資源環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)度時(shí)空演變分析

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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：S-9 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A

Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis of Agricultural Production and Coordination between Resources and Environment in the Guangdong

Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Hu YunFei，Luo YiWen （Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information，Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences /Key Laboratory ofSouth China UrbanAgriculture，MinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairs，Guangzhou，Guangdong 51O640，China）

Abstract： 【Objective】 The green and low-carbon development in Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area is at the forefront of other regions in China，carbon emission per unit GDP of advanced cities has reached the level of developed countries，but there is still a lack of systematic deconstruction research on the spatiotemporal evolution law of the dynamic coupling relationship between agricultural productivity and resource and environmental carrying capacity in this region. This study aimed to analyze the phased characteristics and spatial pattern evolution trend of the coordinated relationship between agricultural production capacity and resource and environmental carrying capacity over a relatively long time scale，which would be helpful to optimize the allocation of regional agricultural resources and promote the sustainable and healthy development of urban and rural areas. 【Method】 Taking the 9 prefecture-level cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area（Guangzhou，Shenzhen，F(xiàn)oshan，Zhuhai，Dongguan，Zhongshan，Jiangmen， Huizhou and Zhaoqing） as the research units，and taking 1992，2000，2010，2015 and 2020 as the research time points， the agricultural production level evaluation index system and agricultural resources and environment conservation evaluation index system were established at different levels. The Delphi method was used to analyze the agricultural production level，resource and environmental conservation degree，and coordination degree of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the past 30 years，and to explore its spatiotemporal clustering pattern. According to the comprehensive score and the difference of changes in the past 3O years，the spatiotemporal clustering analysis was carried out by using the methods of sum of squares of deviations，and the results of spatial and temporal clustering of agricultural production level and resource and environmental conservation degree of the9 prefecture-level cities was obtained.【Result】From 1992 to 2020，the overall sustainable development of agriculture in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was in a coordinated state，but the gap in agricultural production levels among the nine cities in mainland China increased，and the degree of resource and environmental protection was unstable.From the perspective of spatial patern，the agricultural production level in the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area generally showed a spatial differentiation pattern of“northwest - southeast direction”，with Zhaoqing as class I city，Guangzhou，Huizhou，Jiangmen and Zhuhai as class I cities；the conservation of agricultural resource and environmental presented a spatial diferentiation pattern of“central collpse - peripheral fluctuations”，and according to the clustering results，category I includes Shenzhen， Zhuhai and Dongguan，which are close to Hong Kong and Macao，while category II includes Huizhou， Zhaoqing and Jiangmen，which are located in the periphery of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.【Conclusion】 In the past 30 years，the low coordination scope of agricultural development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has expanded spatially towards the coastal direction，while the high coordination scope has moved from the eastern edge of Huizhou to Shenzhen， increasing the difficulty of coordinating resource and environmental protection with agricultural production development. Tthe Greater Bay Area should focus on establishing a green production system，protecting resources and environment，conserving and intensively utilizing resources and energy，and increasing investment in science and technology to improve the spatiotemporal matching and eficiency between regional agricultural development and resource utilization。（剩余19370字）