Copula函數(shù)分析江蘇儀邗地區(qū)降雨-潮位的條件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率

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Analysis of Condition Risk Probability for Rainfall-Tidal Level in Yi-Han Region of Jiangsu Province Using Copula Functions

WANG Haihang，LI Fan，QIN Zhiqiong， JIANG Xiaolei （College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering，Yangzhou University，Yangzhou 225o09，Jiangsu，China）

Abstract：To predict the flood risk of the Yangtze River main stream during the period of high water level overtopping， basedonthe maximum 3drainfallandtidalleveldataof Yi-HanRegion，JiangsuProvinceduring 1965—2O21，amarginal distribution functionwas constructedandthe parameters were accurately estimated by maximum likelihood estimation method.Archimedean Copula function，eliptic Copula function and PlackettCopula function were selected，and the combinedprobabilitydistributionmodelofrainfall-tidelevelwasconstructedandtheconditionalriskprobabilityofraifalltide level was calculated basedon the graph analysisand root mean square eror.Theresults show that：Copula function caneffectivelyfitthejointprobabilitydistributionofrainfall-tidelevel，andrevealthecorelationbetweenrainfalland tide level. When the recurrence interval of heavy rain is 20a ，the probability that the tide level in the same recurrence period exceeds the design value is 3.35% ，which is less than the probability of the tide level in the same recurrence period，indicating that the rainfall affects the local tide level and there is a correlation between them.

Keywords： rainfall； tidal；edge distribution function； Copula function；conditional probability of risk

我國(guó)是遭受暴雨洪澇等災(zāi)害侵襲最頻繁的國(guó)家之一，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，大約有2/3的國(guó)土面積曾經(jīng)遭受不同類型以及不同危害程度的洪水災(zāi)害[1]，其中，城市暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害給城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展和人民的正常生產(chǎn)生活造成了巨大的損失，嚴(yán)重阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，影響正常的社會(huì)秩序，危害人民生命和財(cái)產(chǎn)安全，因此，防范城市暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害對(duì)于確保城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展和人民的福祉十分重要[2]。（剩余7388字）