森林碳匯與低碳經(jīng)濟的空間關(guān)聯(lián)研究

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中圖分類號：F326 文獻標志碼：A 文章編號：1000-2006（2025）04-0276-09

Abstract：【ObjectiveStrengthen theresearchonthe interactive mechanismsand spatialcorrelationbetween forestcarbon sinks and low-carbon economic development，aiming to provide ascientific foundation forregional forest resource management.【Method】This study leveragedforestcarbon sink and low-carboneconomysystem indicatordata from 31 provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions）in China，spanning the years2OO8 to 20l8.Utilizingacomprehensive evaluationmodel，kerneldensityestimation，andbivariatedspatialautocorelation，weanalyzedthespatiotemporal dynamicsof forest carbonsinks and low-carbon economies，as wellas their spatialcorrelation characteristics.【ResultThe spatialdistributionofforestcarbonsinksinChinais transitioningfroma“dual-coredominance”model toamorebalanced “dual-core withasecondarycore”patem.Concurrently，theleveloflow-carboneconomicdevelopmentcontinues toise，with itsspatial pattern evolving froma“strip-cluster-area”structure.Atthe macro level，the Moran's I values for 2008，2013，and 2018 are -0.24， -0.26 ，and -0.26 ，respectively. These values underscore the persistent presence of the“resource curse” phenomenon.Atthemicro level，thespatialpatternsofforestcarbonsinksandlow-carboneconomiesexhibitdistinct aggregationcharacteristics：low-lowandhigh-lowaggegationsareobserved incontiguousdistributions，whilehigh-highand low-highaggregationsappearindisperseddistributions.【onclusionItisimperativetoseizethestrategicopportunityof the dual-carbongoals（carbonpeakandneutrality），leverageourforestresourceadvantages tofacilitateawel-planned lowcarbon economictransition，establish exemplarymodelsof dual-drivendevelopment featuring bothemissonreductionand carbonsinkenhancement，andexploreregionallydifferentiatedapproaches tobalanceforestcarbonsequestrationwithlowcarbon economic development.

Keywords：forest carbon sequestration； low-carbon economy；spatial correlation；Moran's I index

森林碳匯具有緩解氣候變化、提高區(qū)域產(chǎn)值的雙重效用[1]。（剩余15066字）