耕地“非糧化”空間特征識(shí)別與影響因素分析

——以濟(jì)南市長(zhǎng)清區(qū)為例

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摘要：合理測(cè)算區(qū)域非糧化水平、識(shí)別耕地非糧化空間分布特征及其影響因素，可為保護(hù)糧食安全、促進(jìn)耕地精細(xì)化管理提供科學(xué)的參考依據(jù).以濟(jì)南市長(zhǎng)清區(qū)為研究對(duì)象，分析研究區(qū)耕地非糧化現(xiàn)狀及類型，綜合運(yùn)用空間自相關(guān)分析、熱點(diǎn)分析、地理加權(quán)回歸模型等研究方法，以識(shí)別長(zhǎng)清區(qū)非糧化水平空間分布特征、影響因素及其作用效應(yīng)的空間差異性.研究結(jié)果表明：長(zhǎng)清區(qū)耕地非糧化總面積共計(jì)26503.83ha，非糧化水平為46.28%；非糧化水平的空間相關(guān)性較為顯著，存在明顯的集聚現(xiàn)象；高程、有機(jī)質(zhì)含量、距河流距離與非糧化水平呈正相關(guān)：而耕地連片度、距城鎮(zhèn)距離、距居民點(diǎn)距離與人均GDP與非糧化水平呈負(fù)相關(guān)

關(guān)鍵詞：耕地；非糧化；空間特征；地理加權(quán)回歸模型

中圖分類號(hào)：F323.2文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A

Spatial Characteristics Identification and Influencing Factors Analysis of "non-grain" Cultivated Land --A Case of Changging District of Jinan City

DONG Dekun， WU Yifan

（School of Management Engineering， Qingdao University of Technology， Qingdao 266520， China）

Abstract： Reasonably estimating the level of degrainization in a region， identifying the spatial distribution characteristics of degrainization of cultivated land， and analyzing its influencing factors can provide scientific reference for protecting food security and promoting fine management of cultivated land. Taking Changqing District of Jinan City as the research object， this paper analyzes the current status and types of degrainization of cultivated land in the study area. Various research methods are comprehensively used， including spatial autocorrelation analysis， hot spot analysis， geographical weighted regression model etc.， to identify the spatial distribution characteristics， influencing factors and spatial differences of the effects of degrainization in Changqing District. The research results show that the total area of non-grainarable land in Changqing is 26 503.83 ha， and the degrainization level was 46.28%. The spatial correlation of degrainization level is significant， and there is an obvious agglomeration phenomenon. The elevation， organic mater content and distance from river are positively correlated with the level of degrainization while the contiguity of cultivated land， distance from urban area and distance from residential area are negatively correlated with per capita GDP and degrainization level.

Key words： cultivated land; degrainization; spatial characteristics; geographical weighted regression model

中國(guó)作為世界上人口最多的國(guó)家，保障糧食生產(chǎn)、保護(hù)糧食安全是關(guān)系到國(guó)家社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重大戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題2，中國(guó)政府也保持著高度關(guān)注.在過(guò)去的十幾年里，我國(guó)通過(guò)建立較為完整的耕地保護(hù)政策體系，以有效減少因城市擴(kuò)張而導(dǎo)致的耕地大規(guī)模流失.但僅是關(guān)注耕地面積的流失和耕地向建設(shè)用地的轉(zhuǎn)化還較為片面，受糧食作物產(chǎn)出效益低、耕地土壤退化等因素的影響，耕地內(nèi)部的非糧化現(xiàn)象日益突出，并成為威脅糧食安全和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的潛在因素[3]

近年來(lái)，土地資源利用領(lǐng)域相關(guān)學(xué)者們圍繞耕地非糧化進(jìn)行了大量研究.在耕地非糧化空間分異與影響因素方面，陳浮等研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)非糧化面積主要集中于北部與中南部，高非糧化率主要集中于新疆、貴州和東南沿海地區(qū)，且呈現(xiàn)出不同的空間聚集特征.何鑫等采用空間自相關(guān)、熱點(diǎn)分析等方法深度剖析了耕地非糧化的空間分布規(guī)律.LiY等6基于空間自相關(guān)分析與地理加權(quán)回歸對(duì)江蘇省溧陽(yáng)市非糧食耕地?cái)?shù)量特征和空間分布進(jìn)行了研究，并對(duì)其聚類特征和機(jī)制進(jìn)行了探討。（剩余5809字）