沖擊載荷下含腐蝕缺陷海底油氣管道可靠性分析

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中圖分類號：TE83文獻標識碼：ADOI：10.12473/CPM.202407019

ZengWei，Tian Xumin，Zheng Jilin，etal.Reliability analysis of subsea oiland gas pipelines withcorrosiondefectsunderimpact loading[J].China PetroleumMachinery，2O25，53（7）：104-111.

ReliabilityAnalysisofSubseaOilandGasPipelineswith Corrosion Defects Under Impact Load

Zeng WeiTian Xumin Zheng Jilin Zhu Dongrun （SchoolofMechanical Engineering，Xi'an Shiyou University））

Abstract： Subsea pipelines are“l(fā)ifelines”of offshore oil and gas transportation，and their reliability directly affcts thesafetyof underwateroiland gas exploitation.Consideringthat the in-service subsea oil and gas pipelines are subjected to the corrosion byoil and gas in the pipelines，but also to the impactof falling objectsat sea，a damage analysis model for subsea pipelines with corrosion defects under impact load was constructed，and a Kriging（KG）prediction model for damage analysis of subsea pipelines with corrosion defects under impact load was establishedto addresstheisueof lowanalysis efficiency.Onthis basis，areliabilitycalculation method for subsea pipelines with corrosion defects based on the function response value KG prediction model was proposed，and the influences of impact velocity，pipeline burialdepth and pipeline corosiondepth on thereliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines were investigated.The results showthat the reliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines decreases with the increase of the impact velocity of faling objects and the pipeline corrosion depth：the reliability is 100% when theimpact velocity isless than 11m/s ，and decreases to 95.02% when the impact velocity is 13m/s ;andit is 100% when the pipeline corrosion depth is less than 5mm ，and decreases to 92. 07% when the pipeline corrosion depth reaches 7mm.Onthecontrary，the reliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines increases with the increase of pipeline burial depth：the reliability is 100% when the pipeline burial depth is 0.6m .The research conclusions can provide a reference for the design and maintenance of subsea oil and gas pipelines.

Keywords：subsea oil and gas pipeline;impact load;corrosion defect; Kriging model;reliability analysis

0 引言

海底油氣管道將深海油氣資源與陸地油氣生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)緊密相連，被譽為海洋油氣輸送的“生命線”，其一旦發(fā)生失效將會造成嚴重的經(jīng)濟損失和海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境污染[2]，因此，進行海底管道可靠性評估對保證海洋油氣生產(chǎn)安全具有重要意義。（剩余11731字）