非肌層浸潤性膀胱癌患者首次經(jīng)尿道膀胱腫瘤電切術(shù)后兩年內(nèi)復(fù)發(fā)的影響因素分析及風(fēng)險預(yù)測

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ABSTRACT：ObjectiveTo analyze the risk factors of recurrence after transurethral resection of bladder tumor （TURBT） in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer （NMIBC），and establish a risk prediction model，so as to optimize the clinical detection and management of NMIBC.MethodsA total of 174 patients with initial diagnosis of NMIBC who underwent TURBT in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University during Jan.2020 and Oct.2022 were followed up for 24 months，and were then divided into the recurrence group （n=74） and non-recurrence group （n=100）.After univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression，risk factors of recurrence were identified，a nomogram was established，and the calibration curve was plotted，which was verified with receiver operator characteristic （ROC） curve.ResultsThe 2-yearrecurrence rate was 42.53%.Logistic regression showed high body mass index （BMI），poor differentiation，multiple tumors，and tumor diameter greater than 3 cm were risk factors of recurrence （P<0.05，OR≥1），while immediate postoperative intravesical instillation was a protective factor （P<0.05）.The C-index of the nomogram was 0.893 （95%CI：0.8510.938），the area of ROC curve （AUC） was 0.894 （95%CI：0.8470.941），the sensitivity was 82.4%，and the specificity was 83.0%.ConclusionThe prediction model based on BMI，tumor stage，grade，number，diameter，and immediate postoperative intravesical instillation fits well and can provide reference for predicting the risk of tumor recurrence.

摘要：目的分析非肌層浸潤性膀胱癌（NMIBC）患者經(jīng)尿道膀胱腫瘤電切術(shù)（TURBT）后兩年腫瘤復(fù)發(fā)的危險因素，并建立風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型，以幫助臨床優(yōu)化對NMIBC患者的監(jiān)測及管理。（剩余7962字）