多階段攻防對(duì)抗體系效能評(píng)估MS-GERT模型

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中圖分類號(hào)：C935 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.07.17

Abstract： Effectivenessis an important indicator for measuring the performance of multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems （SoS），which represents the tasks completion degree. During the execution of tasks，the external environment constantly changes，and the efectiveness of the SoS shows time dependent relationship.To addressthis issue，an expanded graphical evaluation and review technique（GERT） is proposed to evaluate the efectivenessof multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial SoS. Firstly，a GERT network is constructed based on the multi-stage characteristics of SoS task execution，and the transmission characteristics of the network are analyzed. Then，in thecalculation of effectiveness results，a new task time effctiveness parameter considering time factor is designed to reflect the time-dependent characteristics of efectiveness，using thec and z tag method to obtain the relevant parameters for critical tasks execution by the critical component system. Finally，taking the a misile defense SoS'defensive combat mission as an example， the execution effect of the defense combat misson is evaluated，and indicator data such as SoS effectiveness， combat time，missile inventory，and the time of the missile's first hit on the target are obtained，which provides decision-making indicators that cover more information for optimizing the SoS configuration scheme.

Keywords ： offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems （SoS）； effectiveness;； graphical evaluation and review technique （GERT）；task time effectiveness

0 引言

復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)通過(guò)相互依存、交互的分布式架構(gòu)在網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間中建立連接，形成一個(gè)由諸多系統(tǒng)和要素組成的集成系統(tǒng)或系統(tǒng)組合，以執(zhí)行單個(gè)或多個(gè)任務(wù)并達(dá)成目標(biāo)[1]。（剩余17311字）