供應不確定風險下的應急采購策略

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中圖分類號：F405;TP18 文獻標志碼：A

Emergency procurement strategies under the risk of supply uncertainty

FU Xia012， MAO Jiahao2， YIN Qing3， HAN Guanghua1 （1. Antai Collge of Economics and Management， Shanghai Jiaotong University， Shanghai 2ooo3o， China;

2. Zhejiang Information Development Institute， Hangzhou Dianzi University， Hangzhou 3lool8， China;

3.School of Management， Hangzhou Dianzi University，Hangzhou 3lool8，China）

Abstract： Aiming at the emergency procurement strategies of manufacturers facing supply disruption and yield uncertainty risks， a two-tier supply chain model that includes manufacturers and suppliers was constructed. The optimal procurement strategies for manufacturers in three diffrent purchasing scenarios： single-source procurement of ordinary and critical components， and dual-source emergency procurement were analyzed. The results show that reducing the disruption probability of suppliers not only enhances their bargaining power but also generates higher profits for manufacturers，resulting in a win-win situation. Additionally， production instability on the part of suppliers not only reduces their expected profits but also forces manufacturers to increase order quantities， thereby assuming greater risks associated with supply uncertainty. In dual-source emergency procurement， the correlation between disruption probabilities among suppliers strengthens the competitive edge of high-stability suppliers. Furthermore， when both procurement prices and disruption risks increase simultaneously， the advantages of dual-source emergency procurement in terms of reliability and cost-effectiveness become significantly evident. Beyond this， the dual-source emergency procurement contributes to reducing supply chain instability， particularly in the environments characterized by high disruption risks and high procurement costs， where this strategy effectively enhances supply chain resilience.

Keywords： supply disruption; yield uncertainty; emergency procurement： Stackelberg game

制造商在進行零部件等物資采購時，通常會面臨供應的不確定性風險[1]，主要表現(xiàn)為兩種形式：由外部因素導致的供應鏈中斷和由內部因素引發(fā)的產量不穩(wěn)定。（剩余13445字）