高壓直流接觸器壽命預(yù)測模型的研究

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摘 要： 高可靠性與長使用壽命是高壓直流接觸器的發(fā)展方向。通過高壓直流接觸器電壽命試驗(yàn)分析吸合時(shí)間、釋放時(shí)間、燃弧時(shí)間等特征參數(shù)的退化趨勢，進(jìn)而結(jié)合接觸器的退化與失效機(jī)理，以釋放時(shí)間為特征變量，建立基于函數(shù)擬合和自回歸的壽命預(yù)測數(shù)學(xué)模型。對比結(jié)果表明，基于自回歸的壽命預(yù)測模型預(yù)測精度最高。

關(guān)鍵詞： 高壓直流接觸器; 退化與失效機(jī)理; 電壽命試驗(yàn); 壽命預(yù)測; 自回歸模型

中圖分類號： TM572.1 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼： A 文章編號： 2095-8188（2025）01-0001-05

DOI： 10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2025.01.001

Research on Life Prediction Models of HVDC Contactors

GU Zhihao， WU Chengchuang， ZHANG Chao， HE Yubin， REN Wanbin

（School of Electrical Engineering and Automation， Harbin Institute of Technology， Harbin 150001， China）

Abstract： Higher reliability and longer service life have been the development directions for high voltage DC （HVDC） contactors.An electrical endurance test of an HVDC contactor is carried out.The degradation trends of featured parameters such as pick-up time， release time and arcing time are analyzed.In addition， according to the degradation and failure mechanisms of the contactor， the lifespan prediction models based on the function fitting and autoregression are established using the release time as the featured parameter.By comparing the prediction results， it is concluded that the lifespan prediction model based on autoregression has the best prediction accuracy.

Key words： high voltage DC contactor; degradation and failure mechanism; electrical endurance test; life prediction; autoregression model

0 引 言

高壓直流接觸器是多電飛機(jī)、新能源汽車、能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)等的電源分配單元（PDU）中不可或缺的元器件［1-2］，這類機(jī)電元器件的故障或失效往往被認(rèn)為是PDU乃至整個(gè)配電系統(tǒng)的潛在安全隱患［3-6］。（剩余5134字）