地震前兆還是降雨干擾？

——與“寧強5.7級地震前陜西定點形變的異?，F(xiàn)象”作者商榷

打開文本圖片集

摘要： 在寧強MS5.7地震（2008年5月27日）發(fā)生前2天，寶雞臺洞體應(yīng)變NS和EW分量分別記錄到了大幅應(yīng)變異常，有研究認(rèn)為該異常是寧強地震的短臨前兆[1]。為客觀驗證該結(jié)論的真?zhèn)涡?，本文采用重?fù)地震檢驗和統(tǒng)計實證等方法，對該異常進行了較系統(tǒng)的歸因分析，結(jié)果表明降雨干擾才是主因。

關(guān)鍵詞： 寧強MS5.7地震;定點形變;地震前兆;降雨;寶雞臺;洞體應(yīng)變

中圖分類號： P315.72+5 文獻標(biāo)志碼：A 文章編號： 1000-0844（2023）01-0138-07

DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20210720004

Earthquake precursor or rainfall interference？—Discuss with authors of the paper “Anomaly phenomenon of pointing deformation in Shaanxi Province before Ningqiang MS5.7 earthquake”

YANG Xiaolin1， DING Xiaoguang1， YANG Jinling2， WEI Zigen3

（1.Shaanxi Seismic Station， Xi'an 710068， Shaanxi， China; 2. Fujian Seismic Station， Fuzhou 350003， Fujian， China; 3. Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology， Chinese Academy of Sciences， Wuhan 430077， Hubei， China）

Abstract： Approximately two days prior to the Ningqiang MS5.7 earthquake （May 27， 2008）， a large amount of cave strain anomalies were recorded in the NS and EW components at Baoji station. A previous study showed that these phenomena were short-imminent earthquake precursors of the Ningqiang MS5.7 earthquake[1]. By means of repeated earthquake tests and empirical statistics， the attribution of these anomalies was analyzed systematically to objectively verify the authenticity of this conclusion. Results showed that rainfall interference was the main cause of the remarkable strain anomalies.

Keywords： Ningqiang MS5.7 earthquake; fixed-point deformation; earthquake precursor; rainfall; Baoji station; cave strain

0 引言

就地震前兆觀測和機理研究而言，雖然可從巖石力學(xué)實驗[2]、數(shù)值模型[3]、統(tǒng)計模型[4]和觀測實證[5]等視角，來揭示前兆過程的形態(tài)及演化模式，但真實的震源物理、地殼介質(zhì)、場地效應(yīng)和非構(gòu)造影響因子等要遠(yuǎn)比理想假設(shè)復(fù)雜，故而在這些影響因子的驅(qū)動下，地震前兆往往會涌現(xiàn)出多樣性和復(fù)雜性，這也使得地震預(yù)測預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)長期面臨艱巨的挑戰(zhàn)[6]。（剩余8785字）